Validasi Data Model WRF-CHEM Dan Data Observasi AQMS Kualitas Udara Kota Manado

Eka Wardhani; Firman Apriana Prawira; Yulianti Pratama

Authors

Eka Wardhani BRIN - Institut Teknologi Nasional, Bandung Author
Firman Apriana Prawira Institut Teknologi Nasional Bandung Author
Yulianti Pratama Institut Teknologi Nasional, Bandung Author

Keywords:

AQMS, Manado, Pm2.5, Validasi Statistik, WRF-Chem

Abstract

Pencemaran udara merupakan permasalahan lingkungan kompleks yang dipengaruhi oleh aktivitas antropogenik dan kondisi meteorologi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengevaluasi keandalan serta akurasi model cuaca-kimia terintegrasi Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) dalam mensimulasikan polutan Ozon (O₃) dan Particulate Matter (PM_2.5) di Kota Manado. Evaluasi dilakukan dengan memvalidasi luaran simulasi terhadap data observasi otomatis dan kontinyu dari Air Quality Monitoring System (AQMS) pada 2-3 Mei 2022. Berdasarkan panduan standar statistik, parameter O₃ diuji menggunakan Unpaired Peak Accuracy (UPA), Mean Normalized Bias Error (MNBE), dan Mean Normalized Gross Error (MNGE), sedangkan PM_2.5diuji melalui Mean Fractional Bias (MFB) dan Mean Fractional Error (MFE). Hasil analisis menunjukkan konsentrasi puncak diurnal O₃ mencapai 74 μg/m³ dan PM_2.5 melonjak hingga 92 μg/m³ pada jam sibuk sore hari. Secara statistik, model WRF-Chem dinyatakan valid untuk memproyeksikan parameter O₃ (UPA 1,52%; MNBE -0,16%; MNGE 17,34%). Sebaliknya, model dinyatakan tidak valid untuk PM_2.5(MFB-111,96%; MFE 111,96%) karena mengalami gejala underestimate parah akibat ketergantungan pada inventarisasi emisi global. Penelitian ini memberikan informasi penting mengenai performa model guna penyusunan kebijakan pengendalian pencemaran udara di Kota Manado.

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